As we mentioned above, American odds are the format of choice in the United States, so we will focus on that specific odds format for the sake of explaining how odds work. When looking at the positive number, a good trick is that it represents how much you would win on a $100 wager. Conversely, the negative number is how much you would need to wager to win $100. This is just an easy way to look at American MLB odds, and to quickly calculate your winnings – you can bet any denomination.
If you have the Detroit Tigers at +300 and the Minnesota Twins at -120, that means the Twins are favored to win that game, and the Tigers are the underdog. A bet on the Twins wouldn’t pay out quite as much as the Tigers because the sportsbook oddsmakers are already predicting that they will likely win the game, but a bet on the Tigers would provide much more value if they did pull off an upset and beat the Twin.
In this case, a $100 bet on the Tigers would pay out $300, and a $120 bet on the Twins would pay out $100. Of course, your initial stake is returned to you as well, so you’d come out with $400 and $220 respectively.
MLB Betting Odds: Calculating the Probability of Winning
When it comes to calculating the probability of an MLB team to win a game – there isn’t a rule yet for American odds because it is one of the newer odds formats, so to calculate your probability of winning your MLB bet, you will need to convert your odds to decimal.
For positive odds (underdog MLB odds) let’s say +300:
- 1 + (odds / 100) = 1+(300/100) = 4.0
For negative odds (favored MLB team’s odds) -300:
- 1 – (100 / 300) = 0.6
Once you figure out your decimal odds, we will go through and calculate the implied probability of that bet being a winner.
Decimal MLB Betting Odds
Decimal MLB odds have always been much more prevalent in Europe, and really – everywhere until American odds were introduced. There have been no advancements for probability calculations, so we need to convert American odds to decimal.
To calculate your potential winnings when using decimal odds, you take your decimal MLB odds, multiply them by your stake, and then subtract the stake.
- 8.0 odds would be calculated as (8.0 * $10) – $10 = $80 in winnings 1.4 would be (1.4 * $10) – $10 = $4
To calculate your implied probability of winning, you will need to divide one by your decimal odds which is 1/ 8.0. This gives an implied probability of 12.5%. Implied probability is an important part of your MLB betting strategy and can help you determine whether your bets are worthwhile in the long run.
Fractional MLB Betting Odds
Remember your grade school math class and learning fractions? Well, hopefully, you paid attention because you’ll need them for betting on fractional MLB odds!
When looking at fractional MLB betting odds, if you’re looking at a fractionated number, like 10/1 on the MLB odds board, this means the team has a ten to one chance of winning the game. This way, you can also calculate their probability of winning – from the fractional MLB odds.
The formula looks like this: B/(A+B) = %
For example, if the MLB betting odds are set for a game and the team has 8/1 odds to win, there is an 11% chance they will win the game.
- 1/(8+1) = .11 (11%)
Or, if a team has 1/4 odds to win the match, that can be calculated like so – 4/(4+1) = 0.80 (80%) This team is favored and with an 80% chance of winning – we like those odds.
So, how much will you win on fractional MLB odds? All you need to do is look at the fraction: for every value on the right side of the fraction you wager, you will win the left.
So 7/1 odds – for each $1 wagered, you will win $7.
- 1/6 odds – for each $6 wagered you win $1.
